THE HAGUE, Netherlands — In the famous sketch from the 1970s series “Fawlty Towers,” hotelier John Cleese repeatedly reminds his staff ahead of a visit by some German guests: “Don’t mention the war!”
A similar thing played out during this past week’s meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, only this time it wasn’t a war decades in the past, but one raging right now in Europe, the biggest and most brutal on the continent since 1945.
“Don’t mention the war!”
Because making a big deal out of Russia’s continuing assault on Ukraine would likely offend Donald Trump, once again the leader of the alliance’s most influential nation — a man who, for reasons still unclear, maintains an affinity for Russia’s murderous dictator, Vladimir Putin, as well as an animosity toward Ukraine’s elected president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
The reason for the latter, in contrast, is obvious. Trump tried to extort Zelenskyy during his first term and wound up getting impeached over it.
It would be comical, if it weren’t embarrassing and alarming.
Night after night, Russia launches drones and missiles at Ukraine’s cities and towns, killing ordinary Ukrainians in their homes. Other NATO leaders openly express their disdain for the former KGB operative who pines for the days of the old Soviet Union and its reach and power.
“I’ve not changed my views of Vladimir Putin. I don’t trust the guy,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said at his post-summit news conference.
“We know Putin. And until Putin changes his colors, probably, Russia is an acute threat to all the NATO countries,” Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal said. “Estonia has known for a long time. Baltics, Nordics have known for a long time what Russia is. ... Right now they are occupying Ukraine, killing innocent people.”
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Trump, despite occasional public criticisms of Putin, still appears to have a soft spot for him, as he does for most autocrats. “I consider him a person that’s, I think, been misguided,” he said at his news conference at the close of the summit.
And so, to keep the peace, this year’s summit had a split personality. In Trump’s absence, Rutte and other leaders from the 32-member alliance felt free to criticize Putin and stress the importance of helping Ukraine fend off his invasion. But during the 23 hours Trump was on the ground in the Netherlands, the Russia-Ukraine talk would cool, particularly in his presence, and instead it was all praise for the American president, the great hero who had scored a tremendous victory by getting other members of NATO to increase their defense spending.
The joint statement released at the end barely mentioned Russia or Ukraine, in stark contrast to the communiques released following recent summits that strongly condemned Putin’s bloody war. It, too, emphasized the new spending goal of 5% of each member nation’s gross domestic product for defense, with at least 3.5% for actual military and 1.5% for ancillary spending such as electrical infrastructure and roads. Perhaps the one tangible benefit Ukraine took away was that military assistance provided to that country will count toward the donor NATO nation’s defense spending total.
Whether all of this constitutes success — which assumes that Russia failing in its naked aggression against a neighbor is accepted as such, something not at all certain in Trump’s worldview — depends on how much one values one’s dignity.
When you’re trying to persuade a recalcitrant toddler to eat his vegetables, or at least not hurl them at the wall, you will resort to all manner of creative nonsense. You will tell them they already have superpowers and eating the carrots will make them even stronger. You will tell them about the timid astronaut who, after eating her spinach, suddenly grew brave enough to fly on the rocket.
So it is now with the rest of the civilized world as they deal with Trump, again. That they have some experience with this is perhaps one bright spot. They have clearly studied his first term and the early months of his second to figure out the most effective, most efficient means of flattery and are going at it full bore.
The irony of giving all praise to Trump for getting the rest of NATO to increase defense spending, of course, is that if any one person deserves that credit, it is Trump’s benefactor, Putin. If he had not begun his all-out assault on Ukraine in 2022, what are the chances that other members would have agreed last week to nearly double their dedicated defense spending in the coming years? For that matter, if Putin hadn’t invaded and annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, would the idea of setting a defense spending target at 2% of GDP have even arisen in the first place?
Last week was just the first NATO summit in Trump’s second term, with more of this reality show still to come. NATO leaders pointed to Trump’s affirmation of Article 5, the alliance’s mutual defense clause, as proof that their efforts had paid off.
Unfortunately, and as they may soon find out, Donald Trump’s word means nothing. His promises are not binding assurances but merely noises that come out of his mouth, signifying little, to be modified or even contradicted as the needs of the moment demand.
The Estonian minister of defense, Hanno Pevkur, was asked what he thought about Trump’s views on NATO and Russia shortly before Trump’s arrival at the summit. His response: “I do not have a chip in President Trump’s brain, so I don’t know what he thinks or he doesn’t think. So I know that U.S. services, all the intelligence services, all the military people, they have a pretty good understanding what is the real situation on the battlefield and how the things are in Russia. So I believe that they will provide the best possible intelligence.”
Sadly, Mr. Defense Minister, we in the States also have no idea what Trump thinks and, further, just because American military and intelligence experts know something and put it in their briefings and reports provides zero assurance that the American president will even receive that expertise, let alone incorporate it into his decision-making.
Seven years ago, a year into Trump’s first term, former U.S. ambassador to NATO Doug Lute told me that the alliance’s charter did not require annual summits and the smartest way to deal with Trump would be to simply avoid having them until he was no longer in office. “Why give the guy a platform?” he wondered.
NATO leaders have, once again, ignored that advice. The joint statement announces a summit in Turkey next year and Albania the year after.
Which means two more NATO reality show episodes to go, at least.